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Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Scientists Predict Chilean earthquake

Well actually in a broad sense this was predicted in a paper by Ruegg et al. (2009) in Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors (v175, p 78-85).

The Concepción–Constitución area [35–37◦S] in South Central Chile is very likely a mature seismic gap,
since no large subduction earthquake has occurred there since 1835.


and

Finally a convergence motion of about 68mm/year represents more than 10mof displacement accumulated since the last big interplate subduction event in this area over 170 years ago (1835 earthquake described by Darwin).
Therefore, in a worst case scenario, the area already has a potential for an earthquake of magnitude as large as 8–8.5, should it happen in the near future


Not too bad.

Cheers

Joe Meert

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